Hello, Michael,
First off, 30 years is a LONG way out. I started my career 30 years ago (a depressing thought!) and most of the predictions made at that time about the future of libraries have been way off the mark. You can have a lot of laughs reviewing the professional literature from that period. For that reason, I really don't like to plan more than 10 years forward.
However, I'll get out my crystal ball and take a run at it. I'm basing all my forward planning on the assumption that our institution will maintain a small(er) residential undergraduate program with face-to-face instruction, alongside expanded graduate programs that take place mostly online. I am also predicting a greater number of commuter students and non-traditional adult learners.
So I see our general stacks analog collections evolving mostly to support the on-campus residential program. The print collection will reach a steady state, with regular weeding of outdated material as new books come in. Our print journal and reference collections have already been weeded and replaced with online sources. Audiovisual materials will gradually transition to streaming media as costs come down.
What might disrupt this model? 1) Creation of an e-reader that is truly comparable to the codex book in terms of random access to contents and support for note-taking and mark-up; 2) Revision of copyright law to favor consumers and content-creators, rather than publishers; 3) Break-up of publishing conglomerates in favor of smaller, more agile companies.
Number 1 will get here eventually. As to number 2 and 3 - I'm not holding my breath.
Sara R. Williams
Sara R. Williams
Library Director
College of Saint Mary
7000 Mercy Road
Omaha, NE 68106
(402) 399-2467
swilliams_at_csm.edu<mailto:swilliams_at_csm.edu>
From: colldv-request_at_lists.ala.org [mailto:colldv-request_at_lists.ala.org] On Behalf Of Michael Hohner
Sent: Friday, January 25, 2019 9:03 AM
To: colldv_at_lists.ala.org
Subject: [ALCTS-colldv] 30 year predictions for general collection
Greetings Colleagues,
As part of a library redesign project, I've been asked to check my assumptions about what our Main stacks collection would look like in 30 years.
What do others, especially at a primarily undergraduate with some Masters level degree programs, think their Main stacks/General collection will look like in a 30 year time horizon?
Will it stay the same or increase or decrease, and by how much?
What does 30 years look like for academic book stacks when it you look at current purchasing trends, donations, but also consider weeding, and other factors like ebook availability, digitization projects, and content available open access or falling into the public domain?
I don't want to anchor people by providing by figure off the hop, so will provide my thoughts later.
Thanks in advance for your thoughts.
Also, let me know if you have any good articles to share that would be relevant to this.
Best,
Michael
---
Michael Hohner, MLIS
Head of Collections
Library
P 204.786.9812
515 Portage Avenue
Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
R3B 2E9
uwinnipeg.ca<http://uwinnipeg.ca/>
[http://uwinnipeg.ca/branding/images/uw-esig-logo.png]
Received on Sat Jan 26 2019 - 11:47:50 EST
